Ukraine staggers on, for how long exactly…
Images: The composite shows, from the left, four maps showing a slow but steady encroachment into Ukraine by Russian imperialist troops from February 2022 (top left of 4) – December 2024 (bottom right); at BBC 2 January 2025
Right-hand side single image: Positions of the front line October 11-15, 2026, at Neue Zurcher Zeitung
Introduction
We predicted in 2025 that President Zelensky in Ukraine would be pressured to surrender to Russia. On November 26, 2025, we wrote:
“There is a new brutal alliance of the USA under President Trump and the Russian state under Putin’s presidency to truncate Ukraine, and reverse NATO expansionism. On August 15th 2025, we wrote of the ‘deal’ between President Trump and President Putin to force the Ukrainian President Zelensky to a humiliating cease-fire – which was temporarily held in abeyance…Zelensky had been fatally undermined by highly plausible allegations of corruption…”
“Trump and Putin Squeeze Zelensky and European leaders”; MLRG.online November 26, 2025.
In hindsight, we may well have overstated “the reversal of NATO expansionism”. This since new NATO-USA war manoeuvres took place recently over Kaliningrad (See “Repeated Russian incompetence – or – provocative war fever?”; MLRG.online March 2024). But the rest seems to be in the process of working itself out.
Obviously, President Zelensky has fewer and fewer options left. It is now difficult to see the independent state of Ukraine under his Presidency resisting a crushing loss to Russian imperialism. This now seems imminent over the next weeks to months. That will entail the surrender of territory to Russia. We briefly note three significant new USA bullying tactics on Ukraine.
MLRG.online 15 October, 2026
Recent Events
Today (14 October, 2026) it is reported that new pressures are being put on both Ukraine and on the European Union (EU) countries. The EU had resisted President Trump‘s initial pressures on Ukraine from 2025 ( MLRG.online March 2024). However, the EU leaders’ ability to resist Trump’s will to cede concessions to President Putin of Russia, becomes ever smaller. We note three of these.
1. Financial sanctions on Russia
The newest pressure consists of an enormous financial relief to Russia, which has undoubtedly suffered from EU retaliatory sanctions on Russia:
“The US has proposed that European countries unfreeze some Russian sovereign assets immobilised after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and transfer them to a vehicle overseen by Washington in an attempt to revive peace talks.
The idea was floated during discussions in Miami last week between Donald Trump’s peace negotiators and officials from Ukraine, France, Germany, the UK, EU and NATO, four people briefed on the matter told the FT.
The US suggested several possible methods for unfreezing the assets, including for them to be moved into a new special-purpose financial vehicle overseen by Washington, the people said.
A US official said the use of Russia’s frozen assets was discussed as part of a comprehensive peace deal and that the mechanisms of how they would be released and where they would be spent were still under discussion…. European delegates rebuffed the plan, which was pitched by US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. But it has startled European capitals and Kyiv, raising questions about the US’s intentions and its starkly different approach to pressing Moscow to end its invasion of Ukraine.
Western allies froze about €260bn of Russian state assets in 2022 in response to Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with most of that amount held in the EU.
Ukraine has received a €45bn loan from G7 countries raised against the interest earned on the immobilised EU assets, but many European capitals are opposed to using the underlying assets, citing legal concerns.”
Henry Foy, Paola Tamma, Christopher Miller, Amy Mackinnon; “US floats unfreezing some Russian assets to restart Ukraine peace talks.” Financial times October 14 2026
But this comes on top of two very significant new recent problems for Ukraine’s defensive war efforts.
2. An enforced but mythical energy “cease-fire” prompted by Trump’s Iran war
The first was a supposed halt to both Ukrainian and Russian bombing or attacks on energy installations. It came after attacks on Russian oil refineries by the Ukrainian armed forces were scoring significant wins. When appeals to stop these attacks from the USA to President Zelensky had failed, Trump stated that there was to be a “ceasefire”. This was not discussed with Ukrainian officials, but simply – announced – by President Trump no less:
“US President Donald Trump on Sunday surprised Kyiv and the Europeans, whom his administration had sought to pressure, when he announced on social media that Ukraine and Russia had reached a ceasefire to halt attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure.
“Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.”
Christopher Miller, Henry Foy, Abigail Hauslohner; “US threatens to block arms for Ukraine over attacks on Russian refineries”; Financial Times; October 11, 2026
The reason for this urgency was that following Trump’s war of aggression against Iran – with Israel – the price of oil was escalating. In particular for Trump, the price of diesel was becoming unacceptable for part of his electoral base. That is for farmers in the mid-West. Despite the fact that the root cause for this was Trump’s war of aggression, he blamed Ukraine’s bombing of Russia for the diesel price rise. Moreover, he threatened to stop Ukrainian weapon acquisitions from the USA:
“the US was lobbying European capitals and Kyiv in an attempt to end the attacks on Russian oil refineries. The White House declined to confirm or comment on the calls.
The US message, the officials added, included threats to cut off intelligence sharing and Purl — the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List mechanism for procuring US weapons for Ukraine….
Purl is a NATO-managed initiative through which Kyiv’s allies purchase US-made weapons that are then supplied to Ukraine. The US does not make a financial contribution to the fund.”
Christopher Miller, Henry Foy, Abigail Hauslohner; “US threatens to block arms for Ukraine over attacks on Russian refineries”; Financial Times; October 11, 2026
At the very same time that this ‘mutual cease-fire’ was taking place, Russian missiles continued to rain on Ukraine:
“Moments after Trump posted his statement, a senior Ukrainian official close to Zelenskyy told the FT: “Just now our repair teams are restoring electricity and water supplies in Kyiv [after Russian strikes]. Nobody has heard [of the ceasefire].”
But Zelenskyy said on Sunday evening that Trump’s announcement of an energy ceasefire was “good news for everyone — and it is important that it becomes reality”. “Unfortunately, Ukrainian skies have been infested with Russian ‘shahed’ [drones] all day today,” he said. “There have been glide-bomb strikes and strikes on our energy infrastructure too. A power plant in Kharkiv was attacked this evening.”
Christopher Miller, Henry Foy, Abigail Hauslohner; “US threatens to block arms for Ukraine over attacks on Russian refineries”; Financial Times; October 11, 2026
Nonetheless, the USA billionaire representatives of Trump insisted that Ukraine honour this ‘cease-fire” – and Trump said “Ukraine needs a new leader”:
“Zelenskyy’s negotiating team met Trump’s representatives for nearly eight hours on Friday in Miami, where they were meant to discuss ways to convince Russia to end its war.
But the meeting was derailed when the Ukrainian team was blindsided by Trump’s announcement that he had cut a deal with Russia’s Vladimir Putin to release diesel onto the world market, according to three people with direct knowledge of the talks.
During the meeting, Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner raised the possibility that intelligence sharing could be cut off if Kyiv did not heed Washington’s warning to halt the strikes, according to people familiar with the matter.”
current progress…”
Christopher Miller, James Politi, Amy Mackinnon; “Trump tells Ukraine to ‘get a new leader’ as US threatens to cut off intelligence-sharing
3. Impeding Ukraine’s defences by dramatically slowing and/or halting Starlink satellite intelligence on incoming missiles
Compounding these two recent events was the removal of effective intelligence streaming out of the Musk-owned ‘Starlink’ satellite communication. The Ukrainian military has been heavily dependent upon this intelligence to block Russian attacks. Without it, they are – almost defenceless:
“Ukrainian troops have been caught off guard by restrictions on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet systems that disrupted frontline operations, while Kyiv received no warning from its partners of a Russian missile attack on its energy facilities for the second day running, according to Ukrainian officials.
Starlink terminals used by Ukrainian drone units began experiencing signal failures at speeds above 160kph, disrupting several missions early on Wednesday morning, according to military personnel and senior Ukrainian officials.
“Logistics at the frontline and middle strikes are badly limited,” one senior official … Ukraine’s middle strikes target Russian military supply lines and logistics. The limitations came with “no warning, just in the middle of the night”, the official said.
Ukrainian defence ministry adviser Serhii Beskrestnov said long-range drone operations were also affected, as was Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russia’s new jet-powered drones, since Starlink is used on the interceptors being developed to combat them. “It is clear that this action is not coincidental and is related to the current political situation,” Beskrestnov wrote on Telegram…”
Christopher Miller; “Ukraine blindsided by Starlink restrictions and intelligence gaps”; Financial Times 14 October, 2026.
While USA Government officials say this is only due to Starlink and Musk, the latter say precisely the opposite:
“Musk said on Wednesday that Starshield systems, the military-grade satellite network built on Starlink technology, were “owned and controlled by the US government”.
“Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS,” he said on social media site X, referring to Trump.
He added that the usage of the commercially available Starlink “is limited to civilian or defensive activities and cannot be used for offensive military action, as doing so would be inappropriate for a commercial company”.
Christopher Miller; “Ukraine blindsided by Starlink restrictions and intelligence gaps”; Financial Times 14 October, 2026.
Naturally Zelensky frantically argues back, and insists that the Ukraine will ignore this mythical energy ‘cease-fire’:
“President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Ukraine will restart strikes on Russia’s oil refineries as he expressed anger over a “dangerous” withdrawal of US intelligence and simultaneous weakening of Starlink satellite internet service at a time of intense Russian attacks.
“The block [on attacking refineries] is out. We’re done,” Zelenskyy said in a defiant interview with the FT in London. He also lambasted Washington’s eagerness to strike business deals with Moscow and President Donald Trump’s apparent admiration for Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
Asked to explain the two leaders’ relationship, Zelenskyy said Trump had an instinctive affinity for autocrats and the super wealthy.
“He [Trump] speaks about it openly and loudly that he loves such people and he respects such people. Because for him people who can be leaders 20 years, 30 years, 40 years, it means they can be very strong.”
Washington has piled pressure on Kyiv to stop hitting Russia’s refineries, claiming that a moratorium, alongside a US deal with Moscow to buy hundreds of thousands of tonnes of Russian diesel, is essential to bring down American fuel prices.”
Alec Russell, Ben Hall; Zelenskyy defies Trump as Ukraine resumes strikes on Russian refineries; Financial Times 15 October 2026
This tone and bluntness has made the EU partners of Zelensky anxious. They in essence ask him to be more polite:
“… many are planning to adopt a slightly more critical tone towards Zelenskyy on Friday morning, the officials said, while still expressing support — given the fragility of transatlantic relations and Russia’s relentless attacks on Ukraine.
“We have to continue our engagement with the United States because we’ve had moments in the past when there were challenges and difficulties in respect of this and it was retrieved by good outreach and engagement with the United States,” said Micheál Martin, Ireland’s prime minister, when asked about Trump’s stance on the war on Thursday. “I’ve no doubt that will continue.”
“We definitely have different approaches [compared with the US] to this war,” said Kaja Kallas, the EU’s chief diplomat, when asked about the US-Ukraine tension. “We see that we have to pressure the aggressor to stop this war, not the victim. Squeezing Ukraine is not the right approach.”
Henry Foy, Laura Dubois and Ian Johnston; “EU leaders to urge Zelenskyy to rein in criticism of Trump”; Financial Times 15 October 2026.
Conclusions
None of this bodes well for the independence of Ukraine. After a long war, the people of Ukraine will now face huge further cut-backs to their lives. An internal war within the ruling class has already been simmering as we described previously. This will continue. In the absence of a Marxist-Leninist party, the oligarchs of Ukraine will screw down hard within their rump state.
See on this topic prior articles:
“Imperialist Danse Macabre over the Peoples of Ukraine”; originally February 2022 MLRG.online
“Theses at a time of an obvious attempted re-division of world ‘spheres of interest’”; originally 2022 at MLRG.online
MLRG.online 15 October, 2026
