Netanyahu did not succeed in dragging the USA directly into a war earlier – so try and try again
Hari Kumar August 2, 2024
In 2020 the USA killed Qassem Suleimani the leader of the Iranian Quds militias. We condemned this as illegal and despicable. In April 2024 the Israeli government launched attacks on the Iranian embassy in Damascus Syria to assassinate Iranian military personnel. We pointed out that the motive for the Israeli state was to try to bring USA boots to the ground in the Middle East:
“For a long time now, the Israeli cabinet and military have been trying to lure the USA itself into the war arena. This would provide one potential ‘exit’ strategy for Israel. To this end, they have repeatedly attacked Iran, and the Lebanon-based forces of Hezbollah – to provoke or goad them into substantive action. The Israelis calculated that an open assault on Israeli territory by Iran or Lebanon would guarantee that the USA army and air force would hammer Iran and Lebanon.” April 2024
This attempt by Israel to widen the Gaza war failed. It was “defanged” by a “Carefully Orchestrated, Dangerous Waltz”, between the USA and Iran. They ‘cooperated’ to ensure Iran’s long-warned “counter-attack” was easily rebuffed, and would be only of minor consequence.
The tactic of individual assassination of foreign leaders is an old one. The state of Israel can be said to have been a recent pioneer. This was reliably shown by Ronen Bergman in his 2018 book ‘Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel’s Targeted Assassinations ‘. Israel carried out at least 2,700 targeted assassinations, since the formation of Israel. The book is called “excellent“ by an Israeli former diplomat Alon Pinkas writing in Haaretz. And by Rashid Khalidi (see below reference). But Khalidi also placed the British imperialist teacher in relation to its Israeli neo-colonial pupil:
“Yes. What was once a British colonial speciality became an Israeli colonial
speciality. Everything the Israelis have done they learned from the British – including the laws, the 1945 Defence Emergency Regulations, for example, that the British used against the Irgun. The same laws are
still in force, now used against Palestinians. It all comes from the British colonial playbook.”
Rashid Khalidi; interviewed by Tariq Ali; “The Neck and The Sword”; New Left Review 147 May June 2024; p.5-38
Naturally the Israeli state led by Benjamin Netanyahu did not give up after the failure of its April 2024 provocations. It has now launched even more provocative actions.
Last month Mohammed Deif, the Hamas military commander was killed in Gaza, as confirmed by Israel. Then on the 30th and the 31st July the Israeli state killed a Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukur, and then a Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. The latter was the most significant, and particularly provocative since he was the lead negotiator for peace talks on behalf of Hamas.
This article examines the current state of the Gazan war, and why it happened now.
The current stage of the Gazan War
Since the October 7 2023 Hamas led an un-precedented counter-attack out of their large-scale “open-air prison” that was Gaza, which had lasted for 19 years. We refuted the tactics of the individual terror that the Hamas led. However we also traced its antecedents to the root cause of imperialism and long standing oppression ( November 2023).
The Gazan war is far from over. All events in the whole of the Middle East now center on the heroic Palestinian struggle for political survival and the actual physical survival of the people of Palestine. Whether they are in Gaza or in the West Bank, Palestinians have been starved, killed, made homeless, and seen a systematic destruction of medical and relief facilities:
“At least 39,445 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s war, now in its 10th month, with more than 91,000 wounded. Israel began attacking Gaza, promising to eliminate Hamas and kill its leaders after the group launched an attack on October 7 in southern Israel that led to the killing of some 1,139 people and more than 200 being taken captive. taking more than 200 others captive.”
“Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran”; Aljazeera, 31 Jul 2024
As the UN and even sections of Israeli society now admit, they have tortured and raped Palestinians.
Recent killings calculated to provoke broader war in the Middle East with the USA
The Israeli government has engaged in numerous assassinations. Their current main aim is to widen the war from Gaza to Lebanon and Iran. Since January 2024, an increasing number of high ranking Hamas and Hezbollah officials have been targeted. These have penetrated into Beirut the capital of Lebanon:
“In early January, Israeli forces assassinated Arouri, the Hamas leader, while he was staying in the Dahiya, the Shiite quarter in southern Beirut—crossing a significant threshold, since Israeli attacks as far north as Beirut have been rare in recent years. More recently, Israel has also assassinated three of Hezbollah’s senior commanders. Throughout the war, the Israeli air force has frequently struck weapons convoys and sometimes killed Hezbollah operatives in the Bekaa Valley, close to Lebanon’s border with Syria. As of mid-July, Hezbollah had confirmed the deaths of more than 370 of its fighters in Israeli strikes since the war in Gaza started. Dozens of Palestinian gunmen and Lebanese civilians have also been killed.
Hezbollah, in turn, has gradually increased the range and quantity of its own rocket attacks, and on the Israeli side, about 30 soldiers and civilians have died.”
Amos Harel, “Israel’s Next War – The Mounting Pressure to Fight Hezbollah in Lebanon—and Why That Is So Dangerous”; Foreign Affairs July 23, 2024;
Israel started turning the screw even higher, after a bombing on the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights town Majd Shams, where 12 civilians (10 children) died. While Tel Aviv:
“immediately blamed a Hezbollah rocket for the deaths, while residents – mainly Syrian Druze – said the casualties were caused by shrapnel from an Israeli Iron Dome missile falling onto a football field.” Ibrahim Chamas 1 August, ‘The Cradle’
The Israeli government struck Beirut killing 7 including Fuad Shukur, 3 women and 2 children:
“Tel Aviv used its version of the story as a pretext to launch a strike on Beirut, killing top Hezbollah war commander Fuad Shukr and six others, including three women and two children, and leaving over 80 civilians injured.” Ibrahim Chamas 1 August, ‘The Cradle
Israel’s most recent attempt to widen the Gazan war took place on first Wednesday 31 July striking at Tehran:
“Tensions were already high after Israel said it targeted a senior Hezbollah commander in a “precision strike” on Beirut on Tuesday….
Hamas’s political chief Ismail Haniyeh has been assassinated in Iran’s capital, Tehran, according to a statement from the group that runs the besieged and bombarded Gaza Strip, which blamed Israel for his killing.
Haniyeh and one of his bodyguards were killed in the early hours of Wednesday after the building where they were staying was struck.“
“Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran”; Aljazeera, 31 Jul 2024
Moreover the Haniyeh’s killing was in Iran. Haniyeh was in Iran for the inauguration of the new Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian. This was particularly humiliating for Iran, and Israel carefully designed it to heighten the provocation. It may have achieved that goal:
“Hamas’s armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, said Haniyeh’s killing takes the war with Israel to a “new levels,” warning of “enormous consequences for the entire region”.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promised “harsh punishment”. Al-Jazeera.
While the Israeli government has refused to accept or refute its culpability, Washington is clear:
“Israel… has not acknowledged killing Mr. Haniyeh. But American officials have assessed that it was responsible”.
Raja Abdulrahim and Victoria Kim, “Here’s the latest on the assassinations that have raised tensions in the Middle East”; New York Times, Aug 2, 2024
Since Haniyeh was a ‘moderate negotiator for Hamas in the constantly sabotaged peace talks for the Gazan war’, his death will further hinder any peace agreement:
“Al Jazeera’s Hani Mahmoud said the killing was “significant” for the people of Gaza because he was leading negotiations that they hoped would lead to a ceasefire.
“Palestinians across Gaza and the West Bank also view Ismail Haniyeh as a moderate leader who is much more pragmatic compared to other leaders who head the military side of the movement,” Mahmoud said.
“He is very popular here. He grew up in a refugee camp. He represents the vast majority of the people who are the descendants of the refugee families who were displaced from the Palestinian territories in 1948.”
“Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran”; Aljazeera, 31 Jul 2024
The Iranian Government has vowed retaliation:
“Hamas’s armed wing, the Qassam Brigades, said Haniyeh’s killing takes the war with Israel to a “new levels,” warning of “enormous consequences for the entire region”. Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promised “harsh punishment”.
“Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran”; Aljazeera, 31 Jul 2024
What is the mood inside Israel now?
Israeli government figures have celebrated these killings:
“At least one far-right official, Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu, took to the social media platform X to celebrate.
The killing “makes the world a little better,” he wrote in Hebrew”.
“Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Iran”; Aljazeera, 31 Jul 2024
This is not surprising.
Immediately following the October 7th surprise attacks, Israeli government officials have repeatedly dehumanised both the Palestinian people and those fighting for them or expressing solidarity. A few examples will suffice:
“The deputy mayor of the Israeli-run Jerusalem municipality has called for burying alive dozens of civilian Palestinians whom he described as “subhuman”.
Arieh King called the unarmed men, who were arbitrarily grabbed from their homes in Gaza by the Israeli army on Thursday, “Nazi Muslims”.
“We have to pick up the pace,” he said on X, referring to the Israeli army’s “elimination” of Palestinians.
King added that if it were up to him, he would have used the D-9 armoured bulldozers to bury the men alive, calling them “ants”.
“They are not human beings and not even human animals, they are subhuman and that is how they should be treated,” King said.”
Israeli official calls for burying alive ‘subhuman’ Palestinian civilians.”
Middle East Eye’; 8 December 2023
After having first alleged and convinced many of the world media that the Hamas fighters engaged in systematic rapes on October 7th – the Israeli reports were found by independent investigation (Middle East Monitor 3 July 2024) to be false. There followed denials that the Israeli Defence Forces were responsible for a significant number of deaths on October 7th were finally admitted – long after the propaganda value of the initial claims had been achieved.
Yet the well known Hannibal Directive “directs Israeli forces to kill Israeli civilians and soldiers rather than allow them to be taken captive by an enemy.” (William Van Wagenen, ‘The Cradle’ July 23, 2024).
Most recently high government officials rioted in protest and to free Israeli soldiers accused of well documented sodomy-rape torture of an inmate at the Israeli concentration camp of Sde Teiman:
“Far-right Israelis including government officials stormed two military bases late on Monday, sparking clashes with troops and police over the arrest of Israel Defense Forces reservists who allegedly gang-raped a Palestinian prisoner.
Hundreds of protesters broke into the notorious Sde Teiman base in the Negev Desert in an attempt to stop the detention of nine reserve troops accused of sodomizing a Palestinian jailed there. According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, the victim is hospitalized with severe injuries and is unable to walk…
High-ranking Israeli government officials also took part in Monday’s riots, including Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu of the Otzma Yehudit, or Jewish Power, party. Members of the Knesset, Israel’s Parliament, including Yitzhak Kroizer and Limor Son Har-Melech (Otzma Yehudit), Zvi Sukkot (Religious Zionism), and Tally Gotliv (Likud), were also present.”
Brett Wilkins, “Far-Right Israelis Mob Bases After Soldiers Arrested for Allegedly Raping Palestinian”; Common Dreams; July 30, 2024
The above corroborates the current-day division within Israel into ‘two camps’, described by Ilan Pappé in an essay “The Collapse of Zionism”, 21 June 2024, Sidecar New Left Review.
“One camp can be termed the ‘State of Israel’. It comprises more secular, liberal and mostly but not exclusively middle-class European Jews and their descendants, who were instrumental in establishing the state in 1948 and remained hegemonic within it until the end of the last century. Make no mistake, their advocacy of ‘liberal democratic values’ does not affect their commitment to the apartheid system which is imposed, in various ways, on all Palestinians living between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. Their basic wish is for Jewish citizens to live in a democratic and pluralist society from which Arabs are excluded
The other camp is the ‘State of Judea’, which developed among the settlers of the occupied West Bank. It enjoys increasing levels of support within the country and constitutes the electoral base that secured Netanyahu’s victory in the November 2022 elections. Its influence in the upper echelons of the Israeli army and security services is growing exponentially. The State of Judea wants Israel to become a theocracy that stretches over the entirety of historical Palestine. To achieve this, it is determined to reduce the number of Palestinians to a bare minimum, and it is contemplating the construction of a Third Temple in place of al-Aqsa. Its members believe this will enable them to renew the golden era of the Biblical Kingdoms. For them, secular Jews are as heretical as the Palestinians if they refuse to join in this endeavour.
The two camps had begun to clash violently before October 7. For the first few weeks after the assault, they appeared to shelve their differences in the face of a common enemy. But this was an illusion. The street fighting has reignited, and it is difficult to see what could possibly bring about reconciliation. The more likely outcome is already unfolding before our eyes. More than half a million Israelis, representing the State of Israel, have left the country since October, an indication that the country is being engulfed by the State of Judea. This is a political project that the Arab world, and perhaps even the world at large, will not tolerate in the long term.” Pappé Ibid; my emphasis.
The division is intensifying and erodes the position of those like Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant – who argue for some restraint:
“Settlers and those who favor force over diplomacy were mobilized against “the statists,” like the military chiefs and the current minister of defense, Yoav Gallant, “who feel that national morale is a function of the rule of law and that the army must observe international law,” he said.
The statist view is “disappearing under Netanyahu, and the cultural war is fundamental now,” he said. “A continuing war of attrition and pre-emption in Gaza and elsewhere is good for them politically.”
Steven Erlanger, “Netanyahu, Defiant, Appears to Have Gone Rogue, Risking a Regional War”; New York Times, Aug 2, 2024
The Northern borders of Israel
The Northern territory of the state of Israel abuts onto Lebanon. After the Gaza War began this area became rapidly even more contentious:
“Hezbollah and its patron Iran had been taken by surprise on October 7, just as Israel had. As Israeli intelligence and Hamas sources later confirmed, Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s leader in the Gaza Strip, did not notify his partners in Tehran and Beirut in advance of his intentions.…
That day, the army made another fateful decision, approved by the Israeli government: all Israeli residents living within three miles of the northern border were ordered to evacuate. As a result, some 60,000 Israelis became refugees inside their own country, mostly staying at hotels around the country, including in Tel Aviv, financed by the state. At the time the order was issued, it was assumed that it would be temporary; no one guessed that these people would still be displaced more than nine months later. But as soon as these villages and towns in northern Israel had been emptied, Hezbollah turned them into a shooting range, rendering many of them virtually uninhabitable”.
Amos Harel, “Israel’s Next War – The Mounting Pressure to Fight Hezbollah in Lebanon—and Why That Is So Dangerous”; Foreign Affairs July 23, 2024;
The distracted USA leadership
The Israelis have repeatedly taken advantage of the obviously distracted USA leadership, which is vying between the Republican wing and the Democratic wing, in the lead up to the presidential elections.
“Now, less than 100 days before Americans elect a new president, that broader geopolitical crisis has erupted in the familiar theater of the Middle East. The targeted killings of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in Beirut and Tehran have deepened fears of a regionwide conflict — one that the United States, caught up in its own political drama at home, may have little capacity to avert or even contain.
On Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said the United States had not been involved in, or even informed of, the operation in Tehran, which the Iranian government swiftly blamed on Israel. To some, Mr. Blinken’s statement confirmed a dangerous power vacuum in the region.”
Mark Lander “Fears of Wider Mideast Conflict Deepen, With U.S. Seen as ‘Not in Control’; New York Times (NYT); Aug. 1, 2024
As commentators make clear – the quite obvious supply and monetary levers on Netanyahu – have simply not been pulled:
“But Biden has avoided the most straightforward path to de-escalation on all fronts: for the US administration to withhold some of the $6.5bn in weapons and other security assistance it has promised to Netanyahu’s government since October, and pressure Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire. Instead, Biden has squandered the significant leverage he has over the Israeli premier, who some accuse of trying to prolong the Gaza war to dodge a series of corruption charges that have dragged through the Israeli courts for years, and an independent inquiry into his government’s security failures leading up to 7 October.”
Mohamad Bazzi; “The war in the Middle East is escalating fast – and Biden has squandered too many chances to stop it”.
Guardian Aug 2 2024
Long-standing plans to take the Gaza war to Lebanon and Iran
Benjamin Netanyahu – the PM of Israel, fervently believes in the need to eradicate all Palestinian claims on any portion of land currently held by Israel. Not only that but he has vital self-interests in disrupting any case-fire that halts the planned and partially implemented genocide of Palestinians. After all, he is personally at legal and political peril should the war on Palestine falter. The legal peril is now two-fold. Not only does he have old longstanding legal issues surrounding corruption within Israel; but now the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court has charged he and Israel with genocide, demanded a cease-fire and the arrest of Netanyahu and associates.
Informed observers point out that the widening of the Gaza war was long planned and that Israel is poised to begin this, and that Hezbollah forces are equally determined:
“More than nine months into its war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Israel now appears closer than ever to a second, even larger war with Hezbollah on its northern border. In June, the Israel Defense Forces announced that plans for a full-scale attack in southern Lebanon had been approved. And in mid-July, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that the Iranian-backed Shiite group was prepared to broaden its rocket attacks to a wider range of Israeli towns.”
Amos Harel, defense analyst for Israeli Haaretz ; “Israel’s Next War – The Mounting Pressure to Fight Hezbollah in Lebanon—and Why That Is So Dangerous”; Foreign Affairs July 23, 2024
“In contrast to its unexpected war in Gaza, Israel has long been preparing for a war with Hezbollah. Although Israel’s military leadership was caught completely by surprise by Hamas’s October 7 attack, it had for several years anticipated that Hamas might try to unite with Hezbollah and Iran’s other regional proxies in a coordinated multifront attack against Israel… To many Israeli officials, Hezbollah, as the most heavily armed and well trained of these Iranian proxies, posed the greatest threat. On October 7, as Hamas’s brutal assault was unfolding along the Gaza perimeter, Israeli leaders rushed to prepare for an even larger attack from Hezbollah in the north.”
Amos Harel; Foreign Affairs July 23, 2024
“If some of Israel’s military leaders had their way, Israel might have launched a war against Hezbollah even before the IDF invasion of Gaza began. On October 10, U.S. President Joe Biden gave an important speech in which he promised American help to Israel against Hezbollah and Iran, including sending two aircraft carriers to the region. He also warned the Iranian leadership with one word: “Don’t.” Tehran took note.
At the Kirya, the IDF’s Tel Aviv headquarters, some officers were weeping as they watched the president’s speech.… Nonetheless, a day later, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and some of the generals tried to push Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to approve a major operation against Hezbollah that apparently would include the assassination of senior Hezbollah leaders. But Netanyahu knew that Biden’s “Don’t” was also meant for him. He also understood that a major attack on Hezbollah would very likely end up in a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, as well, and he doubted whether the army was up to the task of fighting vicious wars on multiple fronts, just days after Hamas’s massacre of Israelis on October 7. So Netanyahu did something quite strange, according to officials who were present that afternoon: he told his security detail to prevent Gallant from entering the prime minister’s office in Tel Aviv. By the time Gallant could get through, several hours later, the window of opportunity for an airstrike had been lost.
That evening, Netanyahu also decided to invite Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, two former chiefs of staff for the IDF who were leaders of the centrist National Unity Party, to the newly established war cabinet, a move that would allow the government to restrain some of the more hawkish ideas suggested by Gallant or the leaders of his other right-wing coalition partners. (With their military background, Gantz and Eisenkot were concerned that an immediate war in Lebanon would be too much for the IDF after the Gaza fiasco.)”
Amos Harel; Foreign Affairs July 23, 2024
Why has Israel chosen this escalation at this time?
Several reasons for the timing are given above. Here we summarise these:
i) The Gazan war is unwinnable in its current form despite the barbarity of Israel’s conduct. Palestinian resistance is high and it is bolstered by the international solidarity movement. Moreover, currently it seems to be gaining on the world stage.
ii) One manifestion of that are the victories at the International Court of Justice. These do not mean that Netanyahu and his accomplice – Israeli defense minister, Yoav Gallant – will actually face charges. But they indicate that the Israeli state has been firmly exposed to an international audience as being an imperialist brutal genocidal force. Israel only becomes more exposed.
iii) The fractures within Israeli society into the two main camps described by Pappé is accompanied by a fleeing away from Israel of a significant fraction of the more ‘liberal’ minded. The allows the proponents of the more extreme forces represented by Netanyahu to wield more sway.
iv) It has also led to a deepening financial crisis including the tendency to relocate Israeli-Jewish owned finances overseas.
v) Israeli government recognises the USA current leadership’s capacities. Even by USA standards, the current leadership in President Biden and his Secretary of State and envoy to the Middle East Anthony Blinken – are exceptionally supine and malleable to Israeli imperial wishes. Even today Biden merely wrings his hands:
“Asked about the situation in the Middle East after the assassination of a top Hamas leader in Iran this week, the president said he was “very concerned” and that Mr. Netanyahu should agree to a deal for a pause in fighting.
“We have the basis for a cease-fire,” Mr. Biden said Thursday. “They should move on it now.”
Responding to a reporter’s question on whether the killing of the Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, had ruined the prospect of a deal, the president said, “It has not helped.”
U.S. officials have been scrambling this week in the aftermath of Mr. Haniyeh’s death.”
Victoria Kim, “Biden again pushes Israel to agree to a cease-fire deal with Hamas”; New York Times; Aug 2, 2024
Meanwhile the USA gets ready to, once more, “defend” Israel:
“Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon spokeswoman, raised the possibility on Friday that the United States could also send additional troops to operate whatever additional capabilities the Pentagon sends to the region…
She said that during a telephone call Mr. Austin held with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, on Friday morning, Mr. Austin “committed” that the United States would help Israel in its defense. “We will be bolstering our force protection in the region,” she said.”
Eric Schmitt and Helene Cooper; “The U.S. is poised to send more combat aircraft to the Middle East, officials say”; New York Times; Aug. 2, 2024
Conclusion:
Currently we await developments. However as we previously concluded in November 2023:
“A united movement of the proletarians of both Palestinian and Israeli is the only way forward. This however is a difficult task. Its leadership is still awaited.”
