A Carefully Orchestrated, Dangerous Waltz in the Middle East – To De-fang Israel’s Provocation
by Hari Kumar, 18 April 2024
Background
The events of October 7th terrorist attack by Hamas on mainly civilians in Israel, began a furious and vicious war launched by the state of Israel against Palestinians – those who Israeli cabinet members called “human animals”:
“Israeli Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant…: “We are fighting human animals and we will act accordingly,” he said on 9 October. ‘Accordingly,’ here, meant that “there will be no electricity, no food, no fuel. Everything is closed.”
We previously discussed the extensive historical background of this ‘war’ – in reality this massacre. That history extends back into the British imperialist days in the 1900s. Now, after almost seven months Gaza has been reduced to rubble and the Palestinian people continue to be decimated. That by either direct physical attack of bombs and violence or by deliberate starvation. The current day Israeli military descent into indiscriminate killing of civilians, and targeting of hospital and aid facilities, has fueled mass revulsion throughout the world.
But now the destruction of Gaza and the deliberate starvation of Palestinians has entered a new phase. For a long time now, the Israeli cabinet and military have been trying to lure the USA itself into the war arena. This would provide one potential ‘exit’ strategy for Israel.
To this end, they have repeatedly attacked Iran, and the Lebanon-based forces of Hezbollah – to provoke or goad them into substantive action. The Israelis calculated that an open assault on Israeli territory by Iran or Lebanon would guarantee that the USA army and air force would hammer Iran and Lebanon.
The most recent Israeli provocation took a leaf out of the prior USA attack on military Quds leader Sulaiman Qassim in 2020. As we wrote then (as originally published in Berlin Left January 2020 – republished MLRG.online here) – this violated international law. The Israeli government of course cares as little about international law as does the USA.
We describe below how the most recent provocation evolved. It takes place on a very slippery floor, and risks an escalating war with the risk of spilling out of the Middle East. It is still unclear what the middle-term results will be.
The attack on World Central Kitchen Aid workers precipitated the new stage
For the first time since the Gaza war entered into the post-October 7th 2023 phase, the targeted attacks on aid workers not only resulted in the death of aid workers, but it ignited a worldwide anger. The April 1, 2024 attack on the aid crew working for Jose Andres team unleashed an immense attack on Israeli arrogant hubris.
This was not the first time that such a targeted attack on aid workers by Israeli forces had taken place. But this attack on “World Central Kitchen“ was different. Largely because it resulted in the deaths of foreign citizens. Indeed, it took the death of mainly white, foreign aid workers (read non-Palestinian) to bring even a note of condemnation in statements of the main imperialist nations. That is from the USA, UK, Germany, France – and with it the EU. How did the Israeli government respond?
Very soon after, the Israeli government tried once more to draw the USA into the centre of the stage on a war footing. This has been a repeated tactic of Israel, but has thus far failed. Of course, the USA has remained a stalwart backer of Israel. So the Israeli government upped the level of provocation.
Repeated strategy of individual terror followed by Israel and the USA against Iran
Israel in its most recent attack on Iranian representatives in an embassy in Syria, has done nothing new. They have long emulated the actions of the USA government. The following timetable was compiled by The New York Times (Cassandra Vinograd, April 14, 2024).
“August 2019: An Israeli airstrike killed two Iranian-trained militants in Syria, a drone set off a blast near a Hezbollah office in Lebanon and an airstrike in Qaim, Iraq, killed a commander of an Iran-backed Iraqi militia. Israel accused Iran at the time of trying to establish an overland arms supply line through Iraq and northern Syria to Lebanon, and analysts said the strikes were aimed at stopping Iran and signaling to its proxies that Israel would not tolerate a fleet of smart missiles on its borders.
January 2020: Israel greeted with satisfaction the assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani… Iran hit back by attacking two bases in Iraq that housed American troops with a barrage of missiles, wounding about 100 U.S. military personnel.
2021-22:... In November 2021, Israel killed Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, and followed up with the assassination of a Revolutionary Guards commander, Col. Sayad Khodayee, in May 2022.
December 2023: After Israel’s bombardment of Gaza began in response to the Oct. 7 Hamas-led assault, Iranian-backed militias stepped up their own attacks. And late last year, Iran accused Israel of killing a high-level military figure, Brig. Gen. Sayyed Razi Mousavi, in a missile strike in Syria. A senior adviser to the Revolutionary Guards, …
January 2024: An explosion in a suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, killed Saleh al-Arouri, a Hamas leader, along with two commanders from that group’s armed wing, the first assassination of a top Hamas official outside the West Bank and Gaza in recent years… Hezbollah, which receives major support from Iran, stepped up its assaults on Israel after Mr. al-Arouri’s death. Israel’s military hit back at Hezbollah in Lebanon, killing several of the group’s commanders.
March and April 2024: An Israeli drone strike hit a car in southern Lebanon, killing at least one person. Israel’s military said it had killed the deputy commander of Hezbollah’s rocket and missile unit…
The same day, airstrikes killed soldiers near Aleppo, northern Syria, in what appeared to be one of the heaviest Israeli attacks in the country in years. The strikes killed 36 Syrian soldiers, seven Hezbollah fighters, and a Syrian from a pro-Iran militia, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based group that tracks Syria’s civil war.”
Israeli officials never claim or deny responsibility, but use such phrases as did Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, speaking about the March-April 2024 incidents:
“We will pursue Hezbollah every place it operates and we will expand the pressure and the pace of the attacks.”
Illegal and provocative attack on Iranian Embassy in Syria
The Israeli Cabinet ramped up pressure on the USA by an extraordinary manouevre. Having failed to rouse any Iran into bellicosity by simple attacks on its forces and nuclear scientists within Iran, it tried harder. On April 1, 2024 it illegally (according to international laws outlined by the UN https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2024/04/israel-and-iran-must-de-escalate-conflict-protect-human-rights-warn-un) attacked and killed 13 people including Iranian diplomatic staff and two Iranian generals, in the Iranian embassy in Damascus in Syria. No one contests this. Yet not one of the imperialist nations condemned this action. It was a clear attempt to “internationalize” the current awful – but localised ‘war’ in Gaza.
The signs are clear that the Israeli government was trying to provoke the Iranian government into a fully-fledged war. The Israeli government wanted other countries to be drawn in, most especially the USA. This would have ultimately served the Israeli cabinet purposes – to physically expand its borders while it was continuing to knock off its pesky problem of Palestinians in its own borders.
How Iran aided by the USA – de-fanged the Israeli provocation
Trouble was for Israel – that neither the USA nor Iran wanted a full-out war at this precise time. But Iran was not to lose face. It had to show somehow that it would not tolerate repeats of this. There have been repeated attacks on Iranian persons launched by Israel. How did Iran choose to navigate this? Iran has been openly signaling for the past 14 days that it “would respond”.
And Iran did so, but only after ensuring that there would be “almost zero chances of inflicting damage”. Even before the missile “attack” launched by Iran on Israel, the USA equally openly signaled that they do not want a full-scale war in the Middle East. The Iranians having given clear warning – they shot some 300 missiles and drones. They had loudly announced the launch hours before the slow-moving weapons were likely to hit.
They USA Air Force based in Cyprus had their responsibility in the Middle East patrols, taken over by British squadrons sent to Cyprus. The British announced they would take over ‘routine assignments’ to free up the USAF normally stationed there. All the many missiles sent up by Iran were intercepted by the USA Air Force – acting with a multi-national force to take down the threat:
“More than half of Iran’s weapons were destroyed by U.S. aircraft and missiles before they ever reached Israel. In fact, by commanding a multinational air defense operation and scrambling American fighter jets, this was a U.S. military triumph. The extent of the U.S. military operation is unbeknownst to the American public, but the Pentagon coordinated a multination, regionwide defense extending from northern Iraq to the southern Persian Gulf on Saturday. During the operation, the U.S., U.K., France, and Jordan all shot down the majority of Iranian drones and missiles.”
Ken Klippenstein, Daniel Boguslaw “U.S., not Israel shot down most Iran drones and missiles American Forces Did Most Of The Heavy Lifting Responding To Iran’s Retaliation For The Attack On Its Embassy In Damascus.” The Intercept, April 15 2024
It is difficult to prove, but it is almost certain the USA and Iranian governments were in close touch and concocted this enormous and worrying charade.
Iran gains face. The USA shows it has ‘defended’ Israel, even while very mildly ‘rebuking’ its ally for being a naughty child and going a wee bit too far. Both USA and Iran thereby de-fanged Netanyahu’s intent to draw them into the theatre with their boots on the ground.
An extremely delicate waltz of course, taking place on a slippery floor. Dangerous for the world’s people. Moreover a full international war would not have boded well for the Palestinians.
Why did the imperialist forces resist Israel’s blandishments to overtly enter the war arena?
The imperial forces (USA, UK, Germany, France, the EU, and NATO) – are currently ranged against Russia in the Ukraine. They are simply not yet ready for a broader war as yet. Moreover, their populations are already fired up about the Palestinian cause. A broader war would be right now a few steps beyond what they can pull over their people.
What about their evident rival imperialist powers?
The two, currently weaker imperialists that oppose the Western Allies are Russia and China. They are both too engrossed in sorting out their own backyards (Ukraine and the South China Seas).
Moreover, China has made huge investments in Israel, in particular in the new port of Haifa opened in 2021, and in other major infrastructure development:
“Chinese companies are handling major infrastructure and transportation projects in Israel, including winning the tenders to build and operate a private terminal in Ashdod, along with operating the (USD 1.7 Bn) port… in Haifa. Chinese firms are also building a key section of the Tel Aviv light rail system, and bidding to build additional lines.” Ricky Ben-David, 2 September 2021, Times of Israel. ‘Israel inaugurates Chinese-run Haifa port terminal, in likely boost for economy’.
However, China has one week ago halted deliveries to the port of Haifa since the 15th April, 2024:
“Chinese government-owned shipping giant COSCO to Israel. COSCO announced last week that it would cease its operations in Israel, making it the first and only company to sever its trade relations with the ports in Israel. Unlike other giants that have announced the suspension of their activities through the Red Sea but continue to maintain trade relations with Israeli ports in the Mediterranean, COSCO, the Chinese company, has completely cut ties with Israel. This decision seems unrelated to the Houthi threat but appears more like a principal decision by the Chinese to no longer operate with ports in Israel.”
At the time of finalizing this article, new developments continue to give rise to anxiety for the world’s progressives and militants.
Aftermath
The various governments have reacted predictably. Thus the Iranian Government is proud of itself:
“Iran “has achieved all its goals, and in our view, the operation has ended, and we do not intend to continue,” Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, said over the weekend. Still, he cautioned, “If the Zionist regime or its supporters demonstrate reckless behavior, they will receive a decisive and much stronger response.” Intercept Ibid
Meanwhile, the Western imperialists are using this attack to blame Iran – and reaffirm their support of the Israeli provocatuer. Yet – they now call Iran the ‘provacateur”:
“Group of 7 leaders adopted a joint declaration that reaffirmed their “full solidarity and support to Israel” and accused Iran of having risked “provoking an uncontrollable regional escalation” that must be avoided.
Iran’s attack, which appeared to have been mostly intercepted by Israel and its allies, was carried out in retaliation for Israeli attacks on an Iranian Embassy building in Syria earlier this month. Iranian leaders have signaled that their retaliation is over unless they are attacked again.
The joint declaration from the leaders of G7 nations — Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States, as well as the European Union — demanded that “Iran and its proxies cease their attacks.” The leaders said they were ready “to take further measures now and in response to further destabilizing initiatives.” Anushka Patil, The G7 condemns Iran’s attack on Israel, as E.U. leaders urge restraint from all parties. New York Times, April 14, 2024,
Nonetheless, all parties – including the USA President Biden – have urged Israel to view itself as “having won”, and not retaliate further. Whether the Israeli government will heed this call – is still uncertain.
The Israeli Prime Minister has to extricate himself from his perception of ignominy and failure to release all hostages taken by Hamas. Moreover, he knows that he is criminally liable within Israel for his prior misdeeds. However much blood he spills in Gaza will not absolve him from the Israeli courts. Indeed a political reporter in the influential paper Haaretz says this:
“We can’t say it, but we’ve lost. People have an inclination to believe in the best and be optimistic, hoping that tomorrow will be okay, and that we are in a process that in the end will be more successful. That’s the most fundamental failure of human thought: the notion that the direction we are taking is a good one, that we just need to get there already – that in just a little more time, with a little more effort, the hostages will be returned, Hamas will surrender and Yahya Sinwar will be killed. After all, we’re the good guys, and good will triumph.
It’s the same mentality that leads to the notion that “the Iranian regime will soon implode” and other notions that have more to do with Hollywood scripts than life itself. They’re not the truth and it relates to something that’s uncomfortable. After all, it’s uncomfortable telling the public the truth…
No cabinet minister will restore our sense of personal security. Every Iranian threat will make us tremble. Our international standing was dealt a beating. Our leadership’s weakness was revealed to the outside. For years we managed to fool them into thinking we were a strong country, a wise people, and a powerful army. In truth, we’re a shtetl with an air force, and that’s on the condition that it’s awakened in time.” Chaim Levinson: Saying What Can’t Be Said: Israel Has Been Defeated – a Total Defeat, Haaretz, Apr 11, 2024
Conclusion
Of course, there is far more yet to come. As we conclude here, the USA vetoed at the UN today the proposal – one supported by the UN Secretary-General – to grant the Palestinians full member status at the UN. (Yonette Joseph, U.S. Vetoes Palestinian Bid for Recognition as Full U.N. Member State”, New York Times April 18, 2024)
Several states supported the proposal. China’s UN representative had this to say:
“China was one of 12 countries that voted in favor of the proposal, and its ambassador to the United Nations, Fu Cong, said he found the U.S. veto “most disappointing.” New York Times April 18, 2024)
