What is coming from Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”? A fascist agenda
Above photo from The Innocence Project, 29 May 2020
What is coming from Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill”? A fascist agenda
July 11, 2025
We noted recently the step-wise campaign to subvert laws providing any potential constitutional protections against the fast-moving sink into fascism.
(See “SCOTUS 2025: “Dickensian Ass” or just tied to Trump Executive Orders? MLRG.online May 29th, 2025”
In the same article, we saw that to overcome the lack of “an organised fascist fighting military” which had not yet been organised, the Trump Government was using the ICE force. This was tested out in the Los Angeles savagery of June 2025:
“(3) Since the open re-tooling and great encouragement of the notorious ICE forces, they have become the core of “an organised fascist fighting military”. We have discussed the savagery of their attack in Los Angeles recently. (See: “Justifying” a military crackdown – Trump, Stephen Miller use ICE to provoke and goad”; at MLRG.online June 10, 2025).”
At: SCOTUS 2025; Ibid MLRG.online May 29th, 2025
Finally, in the same article, we noted how the Trump self-described “Big, Beautiful Bill” was about to incorporate major ratcheting up of the ICE forces:
“However, this is likely to become more entrenched with the new Trump’s described ‘Big, Beautiful, Bill’ just passed in the twilight hours. (See Robert Jimison “Sleep-Deprived Lawmakers Stay Up All Night to Pass the ‘Big, Beautiful’ Bill’”; New York Times; May 22, 2025; and Heather Cox Richardson “Letters From an American”; June 28, 2025 at substack here)
Commentators, including immigration specialist Aaron Reichlin-Melnick (@reichlinmelnick.bsky.social) state this likelihood of growth of the ICE forces quite clearly.
Reichlin-Melnick notes that the Bill would allow ICE to become the “nation’s largest jailer… with more funding than the entire Federal Bureau of Prisons… and more officers than the entire FBI:
“If the GOP reconciliation bill passes, ICE gets through FY2029: – $45 billion for detention, on top of the current annual budget of $3.4 billion – $14.4 billion for transportation and removal, on top of the current annual budget of $750 million – $8 billion for hiring/retention – Billions more.”
It is in this light that the recent Supreme Court decisions must be viewed.”
At: SCOTUS 2025; Ibid MLRG.online May 29th, 2025
What are the most apparent aspects of the Bill?
“Mr. Trump and his allies have focused on the bill’s provisions that would extend some tax cuts and create new ones, at a total cost of about $4.5 trillion, while increasing funding for the military and
border security. But the bill also cuts roughly $1 trillion from Medicaid, reduces food assistance and adds trillions of dollars to the federal deficit.”
Tyler Pager; “In Iowa, Trump Begins Task of Selling His Bill to the American Public”: NY Times 3 July 2025
Hence, the passage of this reactionary Bill attacks the working conditions of the working class and their standard of living.
However, the Bill also has an even more sinister edge.
Recall that the Bill was highlighted as Trump paraded the press through his newly designated concentration camp in Florida – so-called ‘Alligator Alcatraz’. (Shawn McCreesh”On Pivotal Day for His Bill, Trump Leaves Washington for ‘Alligator Alcatraz’; New York Times July 1, 2025). It will cost “around $450 million a year to run” (Hamed Aleaziz,; “Florida Builds ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ Detention Center for Migrants in Everglades”; New York Times; 23 June 2025).
This is a central clue. In fact the intent to center ICE as a militia is identified by Harvard scholar Theda Skocpol:
“Theda Skocpol identified “massive militarization of ICE” as “the real heart of this law.” She notes that American scholars have thought the federal system in the U.S., in which state and local governments control the police powers, bought the U.S. some protection against a police state.
But, Skocpol says, officials in the Trump administration “have figured out a devilishly clever workaround. Immigration is an area where a U.S. President can exercise virtually unchecked legal coercive power, especially if backed by a Supreme Court majority and corrupted (the) Department of Justice.”
Heather Cox Richardson; “Letters From an American”; July 5, 2025; at Cox Richardson 5th July
Well – unsurprisingly – against even internal Republican opposition, the Bill got passed on July 4th – the USA national holiday. We examine this Bill in more detail below.
1. The “philosophy” of the bill
Is there a philosophy to the Bill?
No more than the usual ruling class facile pretence of cutting taxes to provide “incentives”. Supposedly, people will work harder because they can allegedly keep their earned money. This will allegedly boost the economy. All mainstays of reactionary ruling class ideology:
“Trump had demanded Congress pass the measure by July 4, and Republicans rammed it through despite the bill’s deep unpopularity and Congress’s lack of debate on it. . .
“Today we are laying a key cornerstone of America’s new golden age,” Speaker Johnson said at the signing. The new law is the capstone to the dramatic changes MAGA Republicans have made to the U.S. government in the last six months.
The measure makes the 2017 Trump tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, which were due to expire at the end of this year, permanent. At the bill’s signing, Trump harked back to the idea Republicans have embraced since 1980, claiming that tax cuts spark economic growth. He said: “After this kicks in, our country is going to be a rocket ship economically.”
Heather Cox Richardson; “Letters From an American”; July 5, 2025; at Cox Richardson 5th July
In reality, all the tax cuts do is to entrench even deeper the wealth in the ruling class, and exacerbate inequity. As far as independent researchers show consistently, the effects on both national state growth are decreased, as is personal income:
“In fact, tax cuts since 1981 have not driven growth, and a study by the non-partisan Penn Wharton Budget Model of the University of Pennsylvania projects that the measure will decrease national productivity, known as gross domestic product (GDP), by 0.3% in ten years and drop the average wage by 0.4% in the same time frame.
From 1981 to 2021, tax cuts moved more than $50 trillion from the bottom 90% to the top 1%, and Penn Wharton projects the top 10% of households will receive about 80% of the total value of this law, too. Those in the top 20% of earners can expect to see nearly $13,000 a year from the bill, while those in the bottom 20% of households will lose about $885 in 2030 as the pieces of the law take effect.
Past tax cuts have also driven budget deficits and increases in the national debt, and like them, this law will increase the deficit by about $3.4 trillion over the next ten years, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. The CBO also projects that interest payments on that debt will cost more than $1 trillion a year.”
Heather Cox Richardson; “Letters From an American”; July 5, 2025; at Cox Richardson 5th July
What does the Bill contain?
2. For the working class, life will get even tougher.
Already, many working people are aware that this bill will make life tougher for them, and a majority of polled people are unhappy:
“Non-partisan analysts have warned that the cuts to Medicaid in particular could strip about 12 mn Americans of access to health insurance in the years to come. A Morning Consult survey, conducted at the weekend, found 50 per cent of voters opposed the “big, beautiful bill”, while 36 per cent supported it.”
Lauren Fedor and James Polit; “Is Donald Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ a political curse for Republicans?” Financial Times; UK; 2 July 2025
“Just 29 percent of voters support the legislation, according to a recent Quinnipiac University poll. Roughly two-thirds of Republicans supported the bill in that poll, a relatively low figure
from the president’s own party for his signature legislation, and independents opposed it overwhelmingly. Roughly half of all voters — including 20 percent of Republicans — say they expect the bill to hurt them and their families, according to a Fox News poll. Still, voters are not paying much attention. Only about 60 percent of voters said they understood what was in
the bill, and just 17 percent said they understood its contents very well.”
Tyler Pager; “In Iowa, Trump Begins Task of Selling His Bill to the American Public”: NY Times 3 July 2025
“But it is clear administration officials are well aware that polls showed Americans disapproving of the measure more than approving, by the huge gap of around 20 points. They are now trying to sell the law to voters. Notably, the previously nonpartisan Social Security Administration sent an email to Social Security recipients yesterday claiming the bill “eliminates federal income taxes on Social Security benefits for most beneficiaries, providing relief to individuals and couples.” Except the law does not actually eliminate federal income taxes on Social Security benefits. Instead, it gives a temporary tax deduction of up to $6,000 for individuals older than 65 with annual incomes less than $75,000, or $12,000 for married couples with incomes less than $150,000.”
Heather Cox Richardson; “Letters From an American”; July 5, 2025; at Cox Richardson 5th July
Recognising the dangers of this Bill, many Republicans had to be bullied into accepting it. Bullying extended to Senator Susan Collins from Maine, Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Senator Lisa Murkowski from Alaska – of whom the first two withstood and refused to vote for the bill. Murkowski openly admits the intimidation:
“Lisa Murkowski, the Republican senator least aligned with Trump, said the bill was bad for America after having just voted for it. She hoped that the House of Representatives would water it down. It did not. Earlier this year, Murkowski admitted: “We’re all afraid . . . I’m oftentimes very anxious myself about using my voice because retaliation is real.” Her fear enabled Trump’s bill to pass by one vote.”
Ed Luce; “Trump’s ominous ICE security state”; Financial Times (UK) 7 July, 2025
To protect themselves, the Republicans have used disguises to conceal the real depth of the effects on working-class living standards.
Instead of the word “disguises”, the New York Times describes them as “maneuvers”. These will ensure obstructions and paperwork requirements for benefits that till now were more straight forward to get:
“a maneuver embedded throughout the sprawling legislation: Instead of explicitly reducing benefits, Republicans would make them harder to get and to keep. The effect, analysts say, is the same, with millions fewer Americans receiving assistance. By including dozens of changes to dates, deadlines, document requirements and rules, Republicans have turned paperwork into one of the bill’s crucial policy-making tools, yielding hundreds of billions of dollars in savings to help offset their signature tax cuts.”
Margot Sanger-Katz and Emily Badger; “How the G.O.P. Bill Saves Money: Paperwork, Paperwork, Paperwork”: NYT July 1, 2025.
The deception is simply a fig-leaf which, for now, allows the Trumpites such as House Speaker Mike Johnson to claim “innocence”:
“House Speaker Mike Johnson said last month in a CNN interview, in which he said Republicans “are not cutting Medicaid. The bill does make some direct cuts to Medicaid funding, but most of its health care savings come from administrative changes. That’s a significantly different strategy from the Republicans’ attempt to repeal Obamacare in 2017, which would have directly reduced federal spending on health programs, and was thus easier for opponents to attack.”
Margot Sanger-Katz and Emily Badger; “How the G.O.P. Bill Saves Money: Paperwork, Paperwork, Paperwork”: NYT July 1, 2025.
Thus, “Instead of directly reducing benefits for the poor, Republicans are making them harder to get and to keep” – which means:
“A lot of currently eligible people are actually going to lose benefits,” said Pamela Herd, a professor of public policy at the University of Michigan, who studies the effects of administrative burdens. “Not because they’re ineligible, but because they can’t handle the set of massive roadblocks Republicans are putting in their way.”
Margot Sanger-Katz and Emily Badger; “How the G.O.P. Bill Saves Money: Paperwork, Paperwork, Paperwork”: NYT July 1, 2025.
The same NYT article itemises some of the specific ways in which life will become more difficult for the large mass of people:
“Here are a few specific examples of new tasks people would be asked to complete if the bill became law:
• Instead of allowing states to use existing information to verify citizenship and income for people trying to qualify for Obamacare subsidies, those individuals would be required to submit documents and would have less time to apply.
• Individuals using Medicaid would need to prove they are eligible for the program twice a year instead of annually.
• “Able-bodied” Americans aged 60-64 on food assistance would be required for the first time to meet work requirements.
But in each of these cases, the Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the changes would result in broad reductions in enrollment and benefits. That is, in effect, where the savings come from.
Nearly a dozen changes to the Obamacare enrollment process in the House bill are estimated to reduce insurance coverage by around four million people. More than seven million people are estimated to lose Medicaid because of a series of administrative requirements, including the twice-a-year renewals and a new program that would require poor adults to prove to state officials that they are working a minimum number of hours. An expansion of work requirements in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program is expected to mean that about three million fewer people will receive aid.”
Margot Sanger-Katz and Emily Badger; “How the G.O.P. Bill Saves Money: Paperwork, Paperwork, Paperwork”: NYT July 1, 2025.
3. The use of the Bill to build the fascist militia of ICE
“What the law does… is pour $170.7 billion into immigration enforcement—more than the military budgets of all but fifteen countries. The law provides $51.6 billion to build a wall on the border, more than three times what Trump spent on the wall in his first term. It provides $45 billion for detention facilities for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, an increase of 265% in ICE’s annual detention budget. It provides $29.9 billion for ICE enforcement, a threefold increase in ICE’s annual budget.”
Heather Cox Richardson; “Letters From an American”; July 5, 2025; at Cox Richardson 5th July
This is pretty clearly the militia that will underpin Trump’s fascist state as a domestic agency akin to the German Fascist SA. Freeing the USA army to be dedicated for foreign war – as will be undoubtedly coming.
4. The building of a new slave labour force in concentration camps
Astute observers of the USA scene argue the Bill, consolidates a new ability to build a layer of slave labour in concentration camps. This includes the vehemently anti-Communist Timothy Snyder:
“Timothy Snyder warned that the extensive concentration camps that Trump has called for and the new measure will fund will be tempting sites for slave labor. Undocumented immigrants make up 4% to 5% of the total U.S. workforce. In agriculture, food processing, and construction, they make up between 15% and 20% of the workforce.
… incarcerated workers will likely be offered to employers on special terms, a concept Trump appears to have embraced with his suggestion that the administration will figure out how to put workers back in the fields and businesses by putting them under the authority of those hiring them. Trump has called the idea “owner responsibility.”
“[T]hey’re going to be largely responsible for these people,” Trump said. This echoes the system legislators set up in the U.S. South during Reconstruction thanks to the fact the Thirteenth Amendment permits enslavement “as punishment for a crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted.” That system permitted employers to pay the fines of incarcerated individuals and then to own their labor until those debts were paid. While we know that system from the chain gangs of that era, in fact employers in many different sectors used—and abused—such workers.
Today, according to the nonpartisan Economic Policy Institute, of the 1.2 million people incarcerated in state and federal prisons, nearly 800,000 are prison laborers, working in the facility itself or in government-run businesses or services like call centers or firefighting. About 3% work for private-sector employers, where they earn very low pay.”
Heather Cox Richardson; “Letters From an American”; July 5, 2025; at Cox Richardson 5th July
Already the Southern states of the USA are using a massive incarcerated labour force that is paid a pittance.
(Figure; from Nina Mast; “Forced prison labor in the ‘Land of the Free’ – Rooted in Racism and Economic Exploitation”; Spotlight Report for Economic Policy Institute; January 16, 2025; at Nina Mast January 16, 2025
To conclude:
Only a mass anti-fascist working-class movement will stop this looming future.
July 6, 2025.
July 7, 2025; Corrections
Minor corrections followed a factual correction by AG, to this passage (section 2) now reading as “Recognising the dangers of this Bill, many Republicans had to be bullied into accepting it. Bullying extended to Senator Susan Collins from Maine, Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Senator Lisa Murkowski from Alaska.”
This allowed us to add a new short passage following a later article, as follows:
“Murkowski openly admits the intimidation:
“Lisa Murkowski, the Republican senator least aligned with Trump, said the bill was bad for America after having just voted for it. She hoped that the House of Representatives would water it down. It did not. Earlier this year, Murkowski admitted: “We’re all afraid . . . I’m oftentimes very anxious myself about using my voice because retaliation is real.” Her fear enabled Trump’s bill to pass by one vote.”
Ed Luce; “Trump’s ominous ICE security state”; Financial Times (UK) 7 July, 2025)
7 July, 2025
